Revellers put on a dazzling fire show at TSC on the Dhaka University campus last night to welcome 2015. Photo: Rashed Shumon When we entered 2014 in the shadows of a yearlong political turmoil and the Rana Plaza disaster, it seemed Bangladesh may have been bracing for yet another bleak year. But the country's farmers, migrant workers, pharmaceutical sector and garment sector continued to fight as
the nation's biggest winners bringing sunshine to the economy. It is reflected in the country's foreign exchange reserve that hit a new height of $22.38 billion in December. This reserve is sufficient to cover import payments for about seven months. The economy would have performed way better had there not been an awful handling of the banking sector where massive default loans were concealed by so-called loan re-scheduling and big-time bunglers were allowed to go unpunished. The financial sector is perhaps the biggest loser of 2014, thanks to mismanagement all around. The year was politically significant for the Awami League because, for the first time, it has been re-elected to office for a second term in a row. Despite controversy over the January 5 election, it gave the AL government a unique opportunity to continue its good efforts and revise and restart the efforts that failed in the first term. But the first few months saw no big efforts from the private or the public sectors because some feared the government would not be stable. The fears were dispelled, but the government refrained from doing what any new government should be doing -- restoring good governance and investors' confidence. But like in the first term, the government continued to drag its feet on what it had been promising since 2009: going ahead with mega projects. One of the first decisions the prime minister made in January 2014 was identifying six important power and infrastructure projects as fast-track ones, to ensure their quick implementation. They are the $2.9 billion Padma bridge project, $2.7b metro rail project, $5b deep-sea port project, $1.7b Rampal coal power plant project, $2b Rooppur nuclear power plant project and a $300m LNG terminal project. Advertisement However, their top priority on papers had no reflections on the ground. Of these, the government signed contracts for the construction of the Padma bridge and secure Japanese finance for the metro rail project. The government has also secured Japanese funding for an over-priced $4.5b coal power plant in Matarbari, although it is not on the priority list. The Rooppur nuclear power project, which has received half a billion dollars in Russian funds for techno-feasibility studies, is making slow progress. But there is no headway of the deep-sea port project. Officials are still preparing tender documents for the Rampal power project. An unsolicited deal for the LNG terminal project, floated in 2010, could not be sealed either. Poor implementation is evident in all other power and infrastructure projects as well. The widening of Dhaka-Chittagong and Dhaka-Mymensingh highways has seen no major breakthrough. The private sector power projects too did not see any significant advance. All these are clear signs that the government is actually lacking focus on implementation. Side by side, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) was not that encouraging. Between January and June, the FDI stood at just $829.43 million, down 11 percent year-on-year. Luckily, the country did not have to depend entirely on the government's project implementation. Farmers presented the government with so good a food production that inflation came down. Bangladesh has increased food grain production in the year and ensured relatively stable prices of food. Farmers celebrated good yields. As a result, the countrymen got rice and vegetables at steady prices almost throughout the year. People gather at flower shops in Shahbagh in the capital to get flowers and bouquets for gifts and for decorating their homes on New Year's Eve. Photo: Firoz Ahmed Production of Boro rice, the principal crop, hit 1.9 crore tonnes. Yields of potato, maize and wheat also went up, thanks to favourable weather and government support. In 2014, the country is likely to harvest 5.6 crore tonnes of paddy and wheat, up 1.6 percent year-on-year. Riding on such good news from agro sector and the stable commodity price on the international market, the inflation fell to 6.21 percent in November -- the lowest in 24 months. Non-food inflation, however, was on the rise. It reached 5.84 percent in November from 5.74 percent in the previous month, due to a rise in house rent, transport costs, education and medical expenses and prices of non-food items. If oil prices in the local market are adjusted in line with the slump in the global market, it is likely to ease inflation further. Remittance staged a strong comeback in 2014 after a fall in the previous year. It grew by 11.42 percent to $6.2 billion during the July-November period against $5.56 billion in the corresponding period a year ago. Exports are showing signs of recovery, propelled by a pick-up in garment shipments. Bangladesh exported garments and other goods worth $27.56 billion between January and November in 2014, up 4.51 percent year-on-year. Of the sum, garment export stood at $22.26 billion during the period. In November alone, it fetched $1.94 billion, a 10.22 percent rise from the same time a year ago. Demand for Bangladeshi pharmaceutical products is growing in Asia, Africa and Europe, as manufacturers follow international standards that ensure better quality, according to Bangladesh Association of Pharmaceutical Industries. It was manifested in the 15.65 percent year-on-year export growth of pharmaceuticals in 2013-14. In recent times, the leather industry has transformed itself from the low-value tanning activities to become a producer of export-quality leather footwear and leather goods along with the high-value crust and finished leather. For the first time, annual leather exports crossed $1 billion mark, showing the path for Bangladesh to diversify its export items. But bad loans have become the worst headache for the banking sector, particularly because of large loans. The top 20 borrowers owe the banks around Tk 43,000 crore as of September, which was 8.7 percent of the total loans. In financial terms, there can hardly be a more dreadful scenario than this. Overall, stability in the banking sector has remained under threats because of the lingering impacts of a series of financial scams at state-run banks.
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